So in the end, I’m pretty much going on my instincts because if I just pay attention to the math and statistics, this article would be very boring.
Just think about people you know that are 15 points higher rated than you, and tell me honestly if you think there is much of a strength differential there? You may have a feeling that Caruana is definitely stronger than Topalov, but the rating difference is just 15 points. The point is that according to the math of the rating system, every participant in this event is extremely evenly matched. If you use the mathematical formula that predicts results based on rating, the top score is expected to be about 7.4 points out of 14, while the lowest score is expected to be 6.4 out of 14. I’m going to rank the players in order from 1 st-8 th, but before I do that we should talk about the math of these predictions.īelow is a list of all of the players and their current up to date FIDE ratings. Everyone thinks they have a good idea as to who can win and who can’t win, but as far as I can tell, the tournament is wide open. New York was just announced as the venue for the World Championship, so American fans can look forward to watching that battle on Eastern Standard Time Zone, and many will plan a visit to watch.īut first things first: predicting the winner of the upcoming Candidates. Excitement mounts for the 2016 Candidates Tournament to determine a challenger to Magnus Carlsen.
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